By ZAID HAMID

This column is extracted from a situation report released by BRASSTACKS, a security and defense analysis think tank based in Islamabad. Mr. Zaid Hamid is its Founding Consultant.

‘Pakistan, for example, had no enemies in the Taliban or al Qaeda until (the Pakistani leader) made them such at our behest. Likewise, there could have been no better Afghan government for Pakistan than the Taliban regime, and yet (the Pakistani leader) helped America destroy it and replace it with the Karzai regime, a government that has allowed an enormous increase in the Indian presence in Afghanistan. ‘To date, Pakistan has lost more soldiers killed and wounded than the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan. More dangerously, the offensives are stoking the fires of a potential civil war between Islamabad and the Pashtun tribes that dominate much of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. This situation is heaven-sent for Pakistan’s enemies, the Karzai regime, and India, to fuel Pashtun irredentism. ‘

Writing the above in the Washington Times on 7 April 2006, a CIA insider, Michael Scheuer, admits the reality of the situation and the blunders of the Pakistan government as well as threats which the U.S. war on terror has brought for Pakistan from Afghan and Indian sides.

“Pakistan in 2015. Pakistan, our conferees concluded, will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement, divisive politics, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction. Nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in the face of opposition from an entrenched political elite and radical Islamic parties. Further domestic decline would benefit Islamic political activists, who may significantly increase their role in national politics and alter the makeup and cohesion of the military—once Pakistan’s most capable institution. In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the central government’s control probably will be reduced to the Punjabi heartland and the economic hub of Karachi.”

From NIC, http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2015.html (U.S. government think tank plans to truncate Pakistan by 2015. the analysis is stunningly in line with proposed new maps below for the Middle East released by U.S. armed forces journal earlier).

We have no doubt in our mind that U.S. does have almost identical plans for Pakistan in the same way that it collaborated with the Indians directly to dismember Pakistan in 1971. The way U.S. is sponsoring the Pashtun sub-nationalist group ANP, which happens to rule NWFP these days, and they way U.S. is supporting Balochistan Liberation Army and has a very suspicious relationship with Mr. Zardari and Mr. Altaf Hussain, we remain seriously concerned that another game plan to dismember Pakistan is already on the roll.

One of the fundamental requirements of such a plan is to ensure a head-on collision between the Pashtun tribes of the tribal area and the federal army of Pakistan. That would cause such a chaos and anarchy in the mainland through reactionary terrorism that Pakistan would be given the status of a failed State clearing the way for a massive invasion of the country to ‘secure’ the nuke assets to prevent them from falling into the ‘wrong’ hands!!

Last week we wrote about the U.S. game:

“U.S. media, Indian and Afghan governments and their psy-ops managers are busy creating two critical perceptions about Pakistan. The two perceptions which need to be created are:

1. Pakistan is a failing State and cannot remain viable for long.

1. Taliban are about to take over the country and the threat of nuke assets falling into their hands is real and close.

To achieve these two strategic objectives in perception management and Psy-Ops, U.S. and CIA have deployed all their assets on ground in Pakistan to launch a comprehensive low intensity conflict (LIC)”.

U.S. desires and demands that Pakistan should use excessive power, ruthless force and massive concentration of troops to engage a phantom enemy which the U.S. President feels is planning another 9/11 in the U.S.

This, for our money, is a total non-sense fable only meant to create a justification for the U.S. invasion of the tribal areas and create a national security crisis in Pakistan. The reality is that the local Taliban militants in the tribal areas like Baitullah Mehsud are Indian, Afghan and CIA assets and have gone against the State of Pakistan but do not have the capacity to cause another 9/11 by any standard. They are a security risk to Pakistan but not to U.S. nor influence the outcome of the war in Afghanistan or Iraq. That is the reality.

Afghan President remains an important instrument to implement this strategy and President Bush’s support to the man remains unflinching.

The harsh messages from Kabul, New Delhi and Washington were matched by abnormal troop movements on the ground creating a sense of alarm in Islamabad and the tribal regions that a U.S. intrusion is near, to test the nerves of Pakistani establishment. For the U.S., the next most dangerous region in the world is now FATA, Pakistani tribal regions and the ground for its invasion is already being created by a massive psy-ops plan.

We are not reading the signals wrong. There is a definite and clear attempt by the U.S. government and military to link Al-Qaeda with tribal areas and thus create a justification for an invasion.

Al Qaeda may be sending men to Fata: Petraeus

http://www.dawn.com/2008/07/20/top6.htm

Obama threatens direct action in Fata
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top9.htm&date=20080716

US, Nato term situation in Pakistan dysfunctional
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top7.htm&date=20080716

The Pakistani ambassador to U.S. is a neo-Con and thus it is not expected of him that he will protect Pakistan’s interest in Washington. Similarly, even the foreign minister fumbled with words and stammered when asked to condemn the U.S. strike in the tribal areas which killed Pakistani troops. The statement of the PM which invited U.S. to attack the tribal areas in case of another 9/11 drew response not just from patriot Pakistanis, but also from the terrorists!

Gilani: Action Now To Prevent Another 9/11
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top3.htm&date=20080715

Taliban criticise PM’s statement
KHAR, July 15: The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has said that Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani’s statement regarding presence of foreign militants in tribal areas is aimed at providing an excuse to the U.S. and Nato forces to intervene in the region. TTP spokesman denied that there were any foreign militants in the tribal areas and said the government would be responsible for any invasion by American and Nato forces. http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=nat4.htm&date=20080716

Under this hopeless combination of “leaders”, the Foreign Office spokesperson remains the only weak defense line for Pakistan who does the job of uttering a few desperate remarks.

Afghanistan creating artificial crisis: FO
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=nat3.htm&date=20080716

But the outcry raised in Pakistan did have a positive impact. It resulted in imposing caution on U.S. planners as far as their invasion plans into Pakistan were concerned. There was a definite plan to penetrate the Durand line but it seems that it has been put on a temporary hold. But the frustration of the U.S. military command was obvious.

Troop build-up reports ‘untrue’, says Gates
http://www.dawn.com/cgi-bin/dina.pl?file=top4.htm&date=20080717

The military situation on Pakistan’s western borders is very tense and dynamic these days. The multiple wild cards are influencing the fluid situation – U.S., Afghans, Indians, Al-Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, local Taliban, Pashtun sub-nationalist groups, Pakistan army and the local tribes.

It is a complex cocktail alright but one thing is very sure and confirmed – none of the anti-American actors present there have the capacity or even plan to wage another 9/11 from these regions. Even the Americans know it. Rest is all playing to the gallery!