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WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas Forecast

18 October, 2018, 09:07 | Author: Lawrence Cooper
  • Committed to meet India's oil demand: Saudi Energy Minister

The largest change is forecast in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, where output is expected to climb by 53,000 bpd to a new peak of 3.55 million bpd.

The Energy Information Administration said crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) were 416.4 million barrels for the week ending October 12.

"I mean, it has the potential to really blow up and to send prices to numbers that I didn't think we'd see again in our lifetime".

S&P Global Platts said that the fields in the Saudi-Kuwait “Neutral Zone” were expected to produce some 500,000 barrels of oil a day. Meanwhile, front-month US crude futures traded near the smallest premium to the 12th month in about 10 months.

The threats came in response to growing global and USA outrage with the killing of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the kingdom's consulate in Turkey, and Riyadh's now admitted role in his disappearance, the Saudi government issued a strong statement warning other nations against imposing penalties. "Middle East tensions that have recently broadened to include Saudi Arabia". This could turn into an extremely bullish event if it means less supply.

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Front-month London Brent crude for December delivery was up 23 cents, or 0.3 per cent, at $80.28, having ended down 1.7 per cent. That's the deepest discount in nearly two decades, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and comes just three months after it last marketed its oil at a premium to Saudi shipments. In the 4 hours chart, the commodity broke below its 20 and 200 SMA, both converging at around 71.50, while technical indicators turned directionless at their daily lows, rather reflecting the decreased trade volume at this time of the day than decreasing selling interest. The global benchmark crude was at a $9.64 premium to WTI for the same month.

Analysts attribute the change a year ago to the output cuts initiated by Saudi Arabia and the increased availability of heavy grades of crude from Iraq at a higher discount, which are more suited for use in Indian refinery complexes. They also expect to see declines in stockpiles of gasoline by 1.52 million barrels and distillates by 1.5 million barrels.

Tensions over Saudi Arabia have eased as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the kingdom promised a "transparent investigation" into the disappearance and alleged killing of a prominent journalist. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump and his top diplomat cautioned against putting the entire U.S. -Saudi relationship at risk over dissident writer Jamal Khashoggi.

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